The US market, read daily, risk first.
US Equities Newsletter and Model Book
Sunday, October 25
An editorial newsletter and illustrative model book for self-directed investors in the US and Canada.
Every trading day: a morning outlook and a night wrap.
Twice a month: an illustrative model book of 12 to 17 lines, cut on the close before the 2nd and the 16th and live for the next session. Large and mega caps and liquid sector ETFs only — never a thin story stock. Where the book goes follows market leadership; how much risk it carries follows the regime; when it leans into the leading industry follows that industry’s own trend. Between cuts, a written rule (the AB Defensive Guardrail) can move the growth sleeve to ten equal-weight names.
An AI Council drafts — every draft anchored to one live regime read, the TRH hazard, so the bulletin, the desk read and the model book all read from the same market context. We review it, then we publish. Editorial commentary, not advice.
The method behind the book, with nearly three decades of market research: Maximum Adaptive Market Adherence (MAMA) →14-day Elite trial · email only · no card · through October 31
Today's bulletin · weekend roundup
Saturday, October 24, 2026
The week ended with a clear rotation away from mega-cap technology rather than a broad market break. SPY closed Friday at 759.97, down 0.85% for the week, while QQQ fell 1.94% to 704.40. In contrast, IWM gained 1.65% to 275.75. That divergence points to capital broadening beyond the largest growth names, although the VIX’s 5.48% weekly rise to 19.45 shows that the rotation c...
Read the bulletinA publication for self-directed investors. Not personal advice, not portfolio management.
Gap-open readSPY gapped −0.5% · P* 76% · SEVERE band×1.91
SINCE FRI CLOSE· Futures reopen Sun 6:00 PM ET · nothing has moved since Friday's close · settle drift WTI −0.4%
The desk keeps hazard high into FOMC and PCE, but the live read has eased versus the held desk posture because the next tier-1 prints are still ahead. SHC reads the two forces holding short of the drawdown event — suppression capacity thinning, price pressure still short of its threshold. Breadth and momentum are firm, while hedges stay mixed and bonds are not fully confirming stress. The desk reads dips as shallow and temporary while SPY holds 710.4: a read, not a forecast.
desk read · written 10:23 AM ET
Since Thu· Thermometer 40° → 36°· Trend 54 → 57 (Neutral → Uptrend)· Verdict unchanged
Equity
Commodities
Factors
Rates & Credit
Global & Dollar
Hedges · inverse
gauge = 20d momentum + 5d trend + RSI · ≥60 strong · 50–60 firm · 40–50 soft · <40 weak · hedges inverted: low = calm
Supports the trend
Tempers it
All of this unlocks with the free Elite trial: 14 days · email only · no card · through October 31.
What is coming into leadership before it is crowded.
Beat odds and how the model book treats names into earnings.
Fed, calendar, and risk on the actual names in the book — 12 to 17 lines.
The TRH desk read, internals and rotation, refreshed through the session.
Every session, the Triaxial Regime Hazard read sets the regime first: a calibrated drawdown probability, adjusted for saturation, macro fragility and the event window. Several models then draft flow and sentiment against that number. We comment, cut, and publish what survives. You get the research. You make the decisions.
Read the MAMA paper — how the model book adheres to the market →Cookies & privacy. We use strictly-necessary storage to keep you signed in, and — only with your consent — functional and privacy-respecting analytics storage. We also use Google's tag to measure whether our own ads lead to signups (conversion measurement). We never sell your data.Necessary storage keeps you signed in; analytics and ad-measurement run only with your consent. We never sell your data. Cookie Policy · Privacy Policy