Every trading day: a morning outlook and a night wrap. Twice a month: a 15-name model portfolio, rebalanced at 9:00 AM ET on the 2nd and 16th. We stay in large and mega caps, and in liquid sector ETFs. Those names follow sector rotation. Not a thin story stock. An AI Council drafts — every draft anchored to one live regime read, the TRH hazard, so the bulletin, the desk read and the model book never disagree about the market. We review it, then we publish. Editorial commentary, not advice.
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A publication for self-directed investors. Not personal advice, not portfolio management.
TRH reads the drawdown hazard SEVERE and rising into a HEAVY event window, with CPI Fri 09-11 and the FOMC rate decision Wed 09-16. SHC reads a possible drawdown holding: market pressure at D 40 and the market's capacity to suppress it at S 70, with the two forces within 50 points from the touch. Three-Axis verdict: MARKET VALUE INTACT — TEMPORARY DIPS, low conviction, with dips expected to remain shallow and reversals sustainable while SPY holds 745.44 until CPI/FOMC or a move back to MODERATELY ELEVATED or lower.
Equity
Commodities
Factors
Rates & Credit
Global & Dollar
Hedges · inverse
gauge = 20d momentum + 5d trend + RSI · ≥60 strong · 50–60 firm · 40–50 soft · <40 weak · hedges inverted: low = calm
Supports the trend
Tempers it
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What is coming into leadership before it is crowded.
Beat odds and how the model book treats names into earnings.
Fed, calendar, and risk on the actual 15 names.
The TRH desk read, internals and rotation, refreshed through the session.
Every session, the Triaxial Regime Hazard read sets the regime first: a calibrated drawdown probability, adjusted for saturation, macro fragility and the event window. Several models then draft flow and sentiment against that number. We comment, cut, and publish what survives. You get the research. You make the decisions.
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