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Macro Events
Key earnings next week · Mon Oct 26 → Fri Oct 30
The week ended with a clear rotation away from mega-cap technology rather than a broad market break. SPY closed Friday at 759.97, down 0.85% for the week, while QQQ fell 1.94% to 704.40. In contrast, IWM gained 1.65% to 275.75. That divergence points to capital broadening beyond the largest growth names, although the VIX’s 5.48% weekly rise to 19.45 shows that the rotation came with higher demand for protection.
Mega-cap coverage remained focused on AI infrastructure and consumer-device demand. NVDA-linked headlines questioned whether stretched valuations across the AI networking supply chain can be supported by upcoming results. AAPL coverage highlighted strong initial demand and constrained supply for its new iPhone lineup, alongside renewed attention to its market-cap competition with NVDA. The supplied reports did not include verified price reactions for either ticker, so the stronger evidence remains QQQ’s weekly underperformance.
The macro narrative shifted toward a tightly packed policy-and-data schedule. The FOMC decision arrives Wednesday, followed Thursday by advance GDP, PCE inflation and jobless claims. No single geopolitical development dominated the supplied weekend roundup; the immediate market focus is therefore policy, inflation and earnings execution rather than a new overnight headline shock.
The shift is from concentrated AI enthusiasm toward defensive rotation and event-risk control: small caps advanced while QQQ retreated and volatility rose. The authoritative TRH read remains MARKET VALUE INTACT — TEMPORARY DIPS, with DRAWDOWN RISK SEVERE · P* 76% as of Friday, Oct. 23—not a forecast—and a HEAVY event window through Nov. 5. Structurally defensive positioning therefore coexists with a tactical temporary-dips verdict, while the model books use smaller sizing into tier-1 releases and do not initiate leveraged exposure into the FOMC day.
With U.S. cash markets closed and CME equity futures not yet trading, the setup into Sunday’s reopening is resilient but hazard-gated, with technology under pressure, small caps leading and the next directional test concentrated in Wednesday’s policy decision and Thursday’s data cluster.
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