Most market commentary is a mood. Ours is a number with a name: the Triaxial Regime Hazard (TRH) — a calibrated probability that the S&P 500 falls at least 5% within the next ten sessions, adjusted for how fragile leadership has become and read against whether informed money is already acting on it. The Council, the 9:15 desk read, both bulletins, the bi-weekly model book and the home page all read the same context, so they cannot disagree about the market.
Liquid names. Sector rotation.
Large and mega caps plus liquid sector ETFs. Names that follow rotation, not thin story stocks that get faded.
We describe regimes.
The publication never tells you to buy or sell. It says what the regime is, what it implies, and what would change the read. You size positions.
Cited, not asserted.
Every AI rationale must cite the TRH verdict and P*. The framework is published as a research paper and the desk context is disclosed to Pro members.
Section 01
Hazard is a rate multiplied by fragility; the trigger tells you whether the market is already acting on it. Three axes, one posterior probability, one verdict.
Axis 1 · Calibration
The drawdown-risk ladder gives P₀, the calibrated base rate of a ≥5% SPY drop over the next ten sessions, from realised history. It is a rate, not an opinion — and it is scored, so it can be wrong in public.
Axis 3 · Saturation → P*
Crowded leadership with nowhere left to rotate multiplies the base rate (up to 2.2×). TRH v1.1 adds macro fragility from FRED series and the scheduled event window (CPI, FOMC, NFP) as further multipliers. The result is P*, placed on a six-rung ladder from LOW to SEVERE.
Axis 2 · Defender (trigger)
Are hedgers, volatility sellers and the leaders-versus-sinks flows synchronising? Triggered or not, crossed with fragile or resilient, yields the four verdicts — and headline attribution explains what caused the trigger.
Section 02
Direction and danger are different axes. A market can be in an uptrend with an elevated drawdown hazard — the honest read says both, in the same sentence.
The trend read from the component pulses — where momentum, breadth and factor leadership actually sit.
The reconciliation with the TRH hazard: the desk verdict's label, P* and its rung, the event window.
What would change the read — the Level-Map invalidation or the next tier-1 release.
Above the ELEVATED line the word "constructive" is never used without the hazard qualifier in the same sentence.
Live on the home page
The hero terminal plots today's dot on this map and logs one point per session, so the regime path — not just the level — is visible at a glance.
Section 03
Sixteen instruments, one 0–100 scale. The same scale scores 23 sector and industry ETFs; only qualifying and neutral names are shown, each tagged with the session it entered its tier.
Section 04
Before September 2026 our services read different thermometers and could disagree. Now a single Desk Context is built from the TRH read and prepended to every AI prompt on the platform.
Soft by default
Every service receives the same block — verdict, conviction, P*, rung, trigger, fragility, macro, event window, level map, cycle phase and its alignment — and must cite the verdict and P* in its rationale. Sector and rotation signals are secondary to it.
Hard where it matters
Two conditions are enforced by the editorial system rather than by the prompt: a CONFIRMED RISK-OFF read at HIGH conviction, or SPY trading below the Level-Map invalidation. Under either, the illustrative model book adds no new non-defensive positions — the Council gate declines them and the desk read’s audit trail records it.
Section 05
The CAMFS cycle phase is the slow structural layer that sets portfolio composition. The TRH read is the fast tactical layer that gates new risk and sizing — and it now governs how the phase itself may move.
Asymmetric by design
Risk-off is fast — a stress read commits the defensive phase intraday. Relaxing is slow — one step at a time, after a five-session dwell and three confirming closes, and only with the TRH read's consent.
Divergence is published
When the phase and the TRH read differ, the Pro dashboard says so — ALIGNED or DIVERGENT — with the reason: confirmations pending, or TRH stress not yet reflected. The two are never presented as a contradiction.
Composition vs risk
Phase sets the pillar mix, beta budget and veto thresholds of the Trifecta and bi-weekly books. TRH gates new risk and sizing in the illustrative model book — whether the published book adds anything that day, how large, and how tight its stops sit.
Section 06
Four modules turn the hazard number into a desk read you can use with discipline.
Level Map
Support, resistance and the invalidation level for SPY and QQQ. The temporary-dips read holds only while the invalidation holds; below it, the read is suspended.
Event Risk Radar
Tier-1 releases (CPI, FOMC, NFP, PCE) define the event window — LIGHT, ELEVATED or HEAVY — which multiplies the hazard and shrinks new position size into the print.
Macro Fragility
Public FRED series — credit spreads, the curve, labour — add a slow-moving fragility multiplier so P* reflects the macro backdrop, not only the tape.
Event Attribution
When the Defender triggers, headline flows are matched to the move so the read names the cause, its confidence, and whether flows confirm it.
Section 07
The same read, in sequence, across the day — drafted by models, reviewed by editors, published with its citation.
08:30
Candidates
The universe is scored and the desk context is refreshed.
09:00
AI Council
Model votes on the Trifecta book, filtered by the TRH hard gate, journaled.
09:15
Desk read of the day
One instrument, regime-aware, with the TRH verdict and P* cited.
11:00
Intraday Council
Re-check against the live read; under the gate the model book takes no non-defensive adds.
Close
Nightly bulletin
Session wrap reconciled with the regime; the trail logs the day's point.
2nd · 16th
Bi-weekly book
15 liquid names rebuilt under the desk context and the phase composition.
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