PRE-MONDAY: Futures Higher (ES +0.45% / NQ +0.72%)
FUTURES PRE-MONDAY READ:
At 6:15 PM ET, ES is +0.45%, NQ +0.72%, YM +0.30% and RTY +0.50% versus Friday’s close. This is a tactical risk-on opening indication, qualified by the governing TRH verdict MARKET VALUE INTACT — TEMPORARY DIPS and DRAWDOWN RISK SEVERE · P* 76% as of October 25, 2026—not a forecast. NQ leads ES by 0.27 percentage point, below the desk’s 0.30-point threshold for a tech-led opening; positive readings across all four contracts instead indicate a broadly firmer, growth-tilted start. Monday’s first hour is therefore positioned for an opening advance, though the thin Sunday session leaves room for that indication to change overnight.
Friday’s cash backdrop was less robust than the futures imply: SPY closed at 759.97 after losing 0.85% for the week, QQQ closed at 704.40 after falling 1.94%, while IWM gained 1.65% to 275.75. VIX ended at 19.45, up 5.48% for the week, preserving demand for protection despite the positive reopening. The event window is HEAVY, with the FOMC decision Wednesday and GDP, PCE inflation and jobless claims Thursday. Under the bulletin’s ±5% quotation rule, the Level-Map correction zone is represented by its 722 upper boundary; its deeper portion sits outside the permitted range. The model book uses smaller sizing into these releases and does not initiate leveraged exposure into the FOMC day.
WEEKEND CATALYSTS:
AI remains the main positive narrative around the NQ lead. Weekend coverage focused on Alphabet’s potential challenge to NVIDIA’s highly profitable AI-chip franchise and Navitas Semiconductor’s NVIDIA-linked AI power push. Those stories can increase relative activity in GOOGL, NVDA and NVTS, but they do not establish a verified cause for the futures advance. The 0.27-point NQ-over-ES spread also falls short of confirming a distinctly technology-led opening.
Apple-related headlines were mixed rather than market-moving. Commentary characterized AAPL as a well-run value stock but questioned its post-Steve Jobs innovation record, while separate coverage noted that Robeco Institutional Asset Management had reduced a SWKS position. Caterpillar’s backlog also drew attention ahead of its Thursday report, but no weekend headline provides a clean explanation for the broad rise in ES, YM and RTY. The more credible interpretation is positioning after Friday’s weak close rather than a single-news repricing.
MONDAY DAILY TRADE FORECAST:
Index bias and first hour
Monday carries a cautiously bullish opening bias. ES and RTY participation suggest the initial advance should extend beyond megacap technology, while NQ remains the strongest contract. The most likely sequence is an opening push followed by a test of whether cash-market breadth can sustain it; failure to broaden would leave the advance vulnerable to a first-hour fade as the week’s policy and inflation risks are repriced.
Sector tilt
Semiconductors, AI infrastructure, communication services and software have the strongest opening setup. Small-cap participation should also improve if RTY maintains its +0.50% indication. Industrials are likely to participate but lag growth because YM is the weakest major contract at +0.30%. Utilities, staples and other defensive groups may trail at the open but regain relative strength if VIX remains near Friday’s 19.45 close or the opening advance loses breadth.
Single-name standouts
NVDA, GOOGL and NVTS carry the clearest weekend AI headline sensitivity, while AAPL and SWKS may see more two-way activity around the innovation and positioning stories. VZ reports before Monday’s open with consensus EPS of 1.27, making subscriber trends, pricing and guidance the immediate premarket focus. CDNS reports after Monday’s close with consensus EPS of 1.61; bookings, AI-design demand and forward guidance will matter for Tuesday’s software tone.
Risk levels
SPY holding above Friday’s 758.68 weekly low preserves the bullish opening case; a break below it would invalidate that view and indicate that the futures gap is failing. A sustained move above SPY’s 774.44 weekly high would weaken the bearish intraday case. For confirmation beyond megacaps, QQQ needs to hold above its 701.16 weekly low while IWM tests and sustains strength beyond its 277.70 weekly high.
KEY EARNINGS TO WATCH:
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Wednesday after the close; consensus EPS 2.94: The desk watches cloud growth, AI capital spending, advertising demand and evidence that custom chips are affecting the competitive landscape. - Microsoft (MSFT) — Wednesday after the close; consensus EPS 4.71: Azure growth, AI-related revenue conversion and data-center spending are the principal read-throughs for megacap software. - Amazon (AMZN) — Thursday after the close; consensus EPS 2.01: AWS growth, retail margins and the scale of AI infrastructure investment will determine whether operating leverage remains intact. - ServiceNow (NOW) — Wednesday after the close; consensus EPS 0.56: As an AB book name, the focus is subscription growth, remaining performance obligations and enterprise AI demand. - Eli Lilly (LLY) — Thursday before the open; consensus EPS 5.38: As an AB book name, supply expansion, obesity-drug demand and full-year guidance are the critical variables. - Coca-Cola (KO) — Tuesday before the open; consensus EPS 0.87: As an AB book name, the desk watches organic revenue, pricing versus volume and the durability of guidance.
KEY MACRO EVENTS:
- FOMC decision — Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET: The statement is the authoritative source; the desk will focus on the policy decision, changes in the characterization of inflation and labor conditions, and the immediate rates-and-equities reaction. - GDP, advance estimate — Thursday, 8:30 AM ET: Watch the composition of growth, particularly whether consumer demand and business investment offset any inventory or trade distortions. - PCE inflation — Thursday, 8:30 AM ET: The key issue is whether the inflation pace changes expectations for the next stage of Federal Reserve policy. - Initial jobless claims — Thursday, 8:30 AM ET: Claims will be read alongside GDP and PCE for evidence that labor conditions are weakening enough to affect the policy outlook.
MONDAY VERDICT:
Bias is cautiously bullish heading into Monday, watch SPY 774.44 for confirmation.
This edition was published to members after the close on Sunday, October 25, 2026.
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Archived market commentary from Assets Bulletin, an independent financial publication. Informational only — not investment advice.