The US market, read daily, risk first.
US Equities Newsletter and Model Book
Monday, November 2
An editorial newsletter and illustrative model book for self-directed investors in the US and Canada.
Every trading day: a morning outlook and a night wrap.
Twice a month: an illustrative model book of 12 to 17 lines, cut on the close before the 2nd and the 16th and live for the next session. Large and mega caps and liquid sector ETFs only — never a thin story stock. Where the book goes follows market leadership; how much risk it carries follows the regime; when it leans into the leading industry follows that industry’s own trend. Between cuts, a written rule (the AB Defensive Guardrail) can move the growth sleeve to ten equal-weight names.
An AI Council drafts — every draft anchored to one live regime read, the TRH hazard, so the bulletin, the desk read and the model book all read from the same market context. We review it, then we publish. Editorial commentary, not advice.
The method behind the book, with nearly three decades of market research: Maximum Adaptive Market Adherence (MAMA) →14-day Elite trial · email only · no card
A publication for self-directed investors. Not personal advice, not portfolio management.
FRI CLOSE → MON OPEN· ES +0.5%· NQ +0.7%· YM +0.7%· RTY +0.8%· WTI −5.5%· Dollar −0.3%· at the open
TRH keeps the desk hazard high into the next heavy data release while the live read has already cooled a band, so the tape remains tactically fragile as rotation funds the leaders. Monday’s reaction looks more like stretched positioning and defensive unwinding than a clean read on the release, with the first pop fading as the tape absorbed weekend risk. SHC reads an early drawdown — price pressure past its threshold while suppression capacity is still thinning: one of the two requirements met, the forces converging toward the touch, the gap narrowing over the past five sessions. The desk reads dips as shallow and temporary while SPY holds 745.44: a read, not a forecast.
desk read · written 3:08 PM ET
Since Fri· Thermometer 30° → 36°· Verdict TEMPORARY DIPS → CLEAR· Trend 52 → 57 (Neutral → Uptrend)· SHC INCIPIENT → EARLY
Equity
Commodities
Factors
Rates & Credit
Global & Dollar
Hedges · inverse
gauge = 20d momentum + 5d trend + RSI · ≥60 strong · 50–60 firm · 40–50 soft · <40 weak · hedges inverted: low = calm
Supports the trend
Tempers it
All of this unlocks with the free Elite trial: 14 days · email only · no card.
What is coming into leadership before it is crowded.
Beat odds and how the model book treats names into earnings.
Fed, calendar, and risk on the actual names in the book — 12 to 17 lines.
The TRH desk read, internals and rotation, refreshed through the session.
Every session, the Triaxial Regime Hazard read sets the regime first: a calibrated drawdown probability, adjusted for saturation, macro fragility and the event window. Several models then draft flow and sentiment against that number. We comment, cut, and publish what survives. You get the research. You make the decisions.
Read the MAMA paper — how the model book adheres to the market →