BULLISH BIAS (65% Probability)
MARKET SNAPSHOT
• SPY: closed near $757.67 today; watch today's session high and low as the immediate technical reference for the next trading day. - NASDAQ (QQQ): $700.07 (+1.76%) - VIX: 15.6 - 10-Yr Yield: 4.66% - Gold (GLD): $371.71 - Fear & Greed Index: 50.5 (Neutral)
THE SETUP
• VIX: closed near $15.60 today; watch today's session high and low as the immediate technical reference for the next trading day.
BULLISH TAILWINDS (65% Probability)
- The S&P 500's AB-Ai Gauge stands at a bullish 61.1, suggesting continued upside momentum is likely. - Recent gains have pushed the S&P 500 towards a technical resistance level around $770, challenging traders to reassess immediate positions. - With 30 assets classified as Strong Bullish, there is robust breadth supporting this advance. - Historically, similar technical setups have maintained their bullish trajectory over subsequent weeks, providing a compelling case for sustained gains through August.
BEARISH FAULT LINES (35% Probability)
- The breadth of assets in bearish territory at 42% remains a critical concern, indicating potential underlying weaknesses. - Any sharp rise in the VIX above the 20 threshold could signal mounting fears and trigger sell-offs. - The yield curve, while currently healthy, could invert with any unexpected economic data shifts, sending caution signals to equity markets. - Corporate earnings season presents potential volatility triggers if expectations are not met, especially in technology and consumer discretionary sectors.
TACTICAL POSITIONING
Given the present bullish stance with a 65% probability of upward movement, a moderately aggressive portfolio allocation towards equities is recommended. Emphasize growth-oriented sectors such as technology and consumer cyclicals, which have recently demonstrated resilience and upward momentum. Maintain a diversified approach by including value stocks to hedge against potential volatility. Risk management should involve strict stop-loss orders set just below critical support levels, such as $740 for the S&P 500, to protect against abrupt downturns.
KEY MONITORING METRICS
- S&P 500: Watch the $745 support level closely; a breach might signal a short-term retracement. Conversely, a break above $775 could indicate further gains. - VIX: Pay attention to a floor at 14 and a ceiling at 17; movements beyond this range would suggest changing market sentiment. - 10-Yr Yield: Monitor for movement above 5%; exceeding this level could pressure equities by making bonds more attractive. - QQQ: A technical breakout above $715 could spur further gains in tech stocks, enhancing bullish momentum.
CONTRARIAN FRAMEWORK VERDICT
While the market exhibits strong bullish signals, the presence of potential bearish pitfalls suggests maintaining a balanced perspective. Thus, while an allocation tilt towards growth assets seems prudent, investors should remain agile, ready to adjust positions rapidly in response to changing market indicators. Subscribers are advised to take advantage of current bullish conditions while maintaining a watchful eye on macroeconomic signals.
NEXT REVIEW: Wednesday, August 05, 2026
This edition was published to members before the open on Tuesday, August 04, 2026.
Get every edition the moment it's released — plus the model portfolio and regime dashboard.
Archived market commentary from Assets Bulletin, an independent financial publication. Informational only — not investment advice.